Pharmacotherapy for adults with overweight and obesity

Objective:To provide procedure-specific estimates of symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) and major bleeding after abdominal surgery.Background:The use of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis represents a trade-off that depends on VTE and bleeding risks that vary between procedures; their magnitude remains uncertain.Methods:We identified observational studies reporting procedure-specific risks of symptomatic VTE or major bleeding after abdominal surgery, adjusted the reported estimates for thromboprophylaxis and length of follow-up, and estimated cumulative incidence at 4 weeks postsurgery, stratified by VTE risk groups, and rated evidence certainty.Results:

We report the short-and long-term results of the SOLIDARITY Finland on mortality and other patient-important outcomes in patients hospitalised for COVID-19. Between 08/2021 and 03/2023, we randomised 156 patients in 15 hospitals. In the imatinib group, 7.2% of patients had died at 30 days and 13.3% at 1 year and in the standard of care group 4.1% and 8.3%(adjusted HR at 30 days 1.09, 95% CI 0.23-5.07). In a meta-analysis of randomised trials of imatinib versus standard of care (n= 732), allocation to imatinib was associated with a mortality risk ratio of 0.73 (95% CI 0.32-1.63). At 1-year, self-reported recovery occurred in 79.0% in imatinib and in 88.3% in standard of care (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78-1.06). Of the 21 potential long COVID symptoms, patients often reported moderate or major bother from fatigue (24%), sleeping problems (19%) and memory difficulties (17%). We found no convincing difference between imatinib and standard of care groups in quality of life or symptom outcomes. The evidence raises serious doubts regarding the benefit of imatinib in reducing mortality, improving recovery and preventing potential long COVID symptoms when given to patients hospitalised for COVID-19.

Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

BackgroundGuidance addressing atopic dermatitis (AD) management, last issued in 2012 by the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology/American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology Joint Task Force, requires updating as a result of new treatments and improved guideline and evidence synthesis methodology.ObjectiveTo produce evidence-based guidelines that support patients, clinicians, and other decision-makers in the optimal treatment of AD.MethodsA multidisciplinary guideline panel consisting of patients and caregivers, AD experts (dermatology and allergy/immunology), primary care practitioners (family medicine, pediatrics, internal medicine), and allied health professionals (psychology, pharmacy, nursing) convened, prioritized equity, diversity, and inclusiveness, and implemented management strategies to minimize influence of conflicts of interest. The Evidence in Allergy Group …

JAMA

To the Editor Although sometimes considered the pinnacle of scientific evidence, meta-analyses can be problematic. Combining outcomes from heterogeneous trials performed in different settings or populations may give results directly applicable to few. Conclusions are also beholden to methodological design, often discordant from those of subsequent randomized clinical trials. 1 Such may be the case with the recently published dose-response meta-analysis of studies examining efficacy and tolerability of gefapixant for refractory or unexplained chronic cough. 2 Because gefapixant is the first novel efficacious therapy for refractory and unexplained chronic cough, its development involved changes in study design and participant inclusion criteria as well as drug formulation. 3 Four drug formulations were ultimately tested, with maximum bioavailability achieved for the formulation used in the phase 3 trials, such that …

Physiotherapy

BackgroundPhysical inactivity is estimated to cost the UK National Health Service over £7.4 billion per year. Healthcare practitioners have a key role in supporting increases in physical activity (PA) levels, including referring to exercise referral schemes. To date, there has been little research into practitioner perspectives on referrals to exercise schemes.ObjectivesTo explore the views and experiences of General Practitioners (GPs) and physiotherapists in relation to factors which influence referral and adherence to exercise referral schemes.Design setting & participantsQualitative study of primary care-based practitioners in Glasgow, UK.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 practitioners (seven GPs and seven physiotherapists). Interviews were recorded and analysed thematically.ResultsFour themes are presented. Firstly, all people, including healthcare practitioners, bring inherent biases …

BackgroundAn increasing number of systematic reviews (SRs) have evaluated the diagnostic values of next-generation sequencing (NGS) in infectious diseases (IDs).AimThis umbrella analysis aimed to assess the potential risk of bias in existing SRs and to summarize the published diagnostic values of NGS in different IDs.MethodWe searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library until September 2023 for SRs assessing the diagnostic validity of NGS for IDs. Two investigators independently determined review eligibility, extracted data, and evaluated reporting quality, risk of bias, methodological quality, and evidence certainty in the included SRs.ResultsEleven SRs were analyzed. Most SRs exhibited a moderate level of reporting quality, while a serious risk of bias was observed in all SRs. The diagnostic performance of NGS in detecting pneumocystis pneumonia and periprosthetic/prosthetic joint infection …

Journal of Critical Care

IntroductionThe objective of this study was to create a definition of patient-important upper gastrointestinal bleeding during critical illness as an outcome for a randomized trial.DesignThis was a sequential mixed-methods qualitative-dominant multi-center study with an instrument-building aim. In semi-structured individual interviews or focus groups we elicited views from survivors of critical illness and family members of patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) regarding which features indicate important gastrointestinal bleeding. Quantitative demographic characteristics were collected. We analyzed qualitative data using inductive content analysis to develop a definition for patient-important upper gastrointestinal bleeding.SettingCanada and the United States.Participants51 ICU survivors and family members of ICU patients.ResultsParticipants considered gastrointestinal bleeding to be important if it resulted in death …

Public Health Nutrition

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate the social and environmental factors involved in the food decision-making processes of families living on lower incomes on the Island of Ireland.DesignA qualitative design was employed for this study, using photovoice and creative mapping methods. Parents were requested to take photos and draw maps of their food environments. Interviews were then conducted with parents, using the materials produced by parents as a cue to discuss their food environments, influences and decision-making processes around food choices.SettingThe participants were interviewed online via Microsoft Teams.ParticipantsThe participants were parents or guardians of children between the ages of 2 and 18 who self-defined as ‘living on a tight budget’.ResultsTwenty-eight participants were recruited and interviewed for this study, including twelve parents in Northern Ireland and sixteen …

ObjectiveTo summarize the evidence of various exercise modalities on population with insomnia disorders.MethodPubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of science were searched for eligible studies published from inception to October 2022 and updated on September 2023. Systematic reviews with meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials designed to investigate the effect of various exercise modalities on population with insomnia were eligible.ResultsA total of 4 SRs with (very) low methodological quality and 1034 participants in 10 network meta-analyses explored the association between different types and intensity exercise modalities with insomnia disorders. Various exercise modalities could significantly improve total sleep time and sleep quality and alleviate insomnia severity. Compared to passive control, moderate aerobic exercise, moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity …

JACC: Heart Failure

BackgroundA recent study showed that the accuracy of heart failure (HF) cardiologists and family doctors to predict mortality in outpatients with HF proved suboptimal, performing less well than models.ObjectivesThe authors sought to evaluate patient and physician factors associated with physician accuracy.MethodsThe authors included outpatients with HF from 11 HF clinics. Family doctors and HF cardiologists estimated patient 1-year mortality. They calculated predicted mortality using the Seattle HF Model and followed patients for 1 year to record mortality (or urgent heart transplant or ventricular assist device implant as mortality-equivalent events). Using multivariable logistic regression, the authors evaluated associations among physician experience and confidence in estimates, duration of patient-physician relationship, patient-physician sex concordance, patient race, and predicted risk, with concordant results …

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

ObjectiveAssessment of the certainty of evidence (CoE) from network meta-analysis is critical to convey the strength of inferences for clinical decision-making. Both the GRADE Working Group (GWG) and the CINeMA framework have been designed to assess the CoE of treatment effects informed by network meta-analysis; however, the concordance of results is uncertain.Study design and settingWe assessed the CoE for treatment effects of individual opioids on pain relief and physical functioning from a network meta-analysis for chronic noncancer pain using the GWG approach and the CINeMA framework. Both approaches evaluate the CoE as high, moderate, low or very low. We quantified the number of discrepant CoE ratings between approaches, and the magnitude of the difference (i.e., 1-level, 2-levels, or 3-levels).ResultsAcross 105 comparisons among individual opioids for pain relief, the GWG and CINeMA …

Objectives To make inferences regarding the effectiveness of respiratory interventions and case isolation measures in reducing or preventing the transmission of mpox based on synthesis of available literature. Methods The WHO Clinical Management and Infection Prevention and Control 2022 guideline and droplet precautions in healthcare facilities and home isolation infection prevention control measures for patients with mpox. We conducted a systematic review that included a broad search of five electronic databases. In a two-stage process, we initially sought only randomized controlled trials and observational comparative studies; when the search failed to yield eligible studies, the subsequent search included all study designs including clinical and environmental sampling studies. Results No studies were identified that directly addressed airborne and droplet precautions and home isolation infection prevention control measures. To inform the review questions the review team synthesized route of transmission data in mpox. There were 2366/4309 (54.9%) cases in which investigators identified mpox infection occurring following transmission through direct physical sexual contact. There were no reported mpox cases in which investigators identified inhalation as a single route of transmission. There were 2/4309 cases in which investigators identified fomite as a single route of transmission. Clinical and environmental sampling studies isolated mpox virus in a minority of saliva, oropharangeal swabs, mpox skin lesions, and hospital room air. Conclusions Current findings provide compelling evidence that transmission of mpox occurs …

Hypophosphatasia (HPP) is a rare inborn error of metabolism that presents variably in both age of onset and severity. HPP is caused by pathogenic variants in the ALPL gene, resulting in low activity of tissue nonspecific alkaline phosphatase (TNSALP). Patients with HPP tend have a similar pattern of elevation of natural substrates that can be used to aid in diagnosis. No formal diagnostic guidelines currently exist for the diagnosis of this condition in children, adolescents, or adults. The International HPP Working Group is a comprised of a multidisciplinary team of experts from Europe and North America who have expertise in the diagnosis and management of patients with HPP. This group reviewed 93 papers through a Medline, Medline In-Process, and Embase search for the terms “HPP” and “hypophosphatasia” between 2005 and 2020 and that explicitly address either the diagnosis of HPP in children, clinical …

Funded by the Health Foundation and produced by the University of Glasgow and the University of Edinburgh, this report explores how the inverse care applies to general practice in Scotland.It does so in three parts. First, the report identifies and analyses policies and interventions to address the inverse care law in Scotland since 2000. Second, it draws on interviews with key stakeholders to understand the impact of the inverse care law and efforts to tackle it, in particular the role of the Scottish Deep End project–a collaboration between academic and front-line GPs working in the most deprived areas. Finally, it presents the latest available quantitative data, showing how the general practice workforce and funding is distributed across the deprivation gradient in Scotland.

Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice

Background To realize the potential of precision medicine, predictive models should be integrated within the framework of decision analysis, such as the decision curve analysis (DCA). To date, its application has required individual patient data (IPD) that are often unavailable. Performing DCA using aggregate data without requiring IPD may advance the goals of precision medicine. Methods We present a statistical framework demonstrating that DCA can be conducted by using only the mean and standard deviation (SD) from the raw probabilities of the predictive model. We tested our theoretical framework by performing extensive simulations and comparing the aggregate‐based DCA with IPD DCA. The latter was conducted using IPD from four predictive models that employed logistic regression, Cox or competing risk time‐to‐event modeling including (a) statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (n …

ObjectivesAcupuncture overviews are increasing rapidly; however, their reporting quality is yet unclear. We aimed to investigate the reporting quality of relevant overviews according to the preferred reporting items for overviews of reviews (PRIOR) statement.MethodsWe systematically searched PubMed from inception to August 16, 2022 for overviews on acupuncture therapies. Reporting quality of included overviews was evaluated using the PRIOR statement, and the results were cross-checked. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the predictors of the reporting completeness. GraphPad 9.4 was utilized to generate an evidence map, Excel 2019 was used to extract and manage data, and R 4.2.3 was used for data analysis.ResultsA total of 49 overviews published from 2006 to 2022 were included, of which China ranked first with 38 overviews. The most frequently searched database was PubMed …

Background Cough severity represents an important subjective endpoint to assess the impact of therapies for patients with refractory or unexplained chronic cough (RCC/UCC). Objective To develop, using FDA guidance, a new patient-reported outcome measure addressing cough severity in patients with RCC/UCC. Methods Phase 1 (item generation): A systematic survey, patient focus groups, and expert consultation generated 51 items. Phase 2 (item reduction): From a list of 51 items, 100 patients identified those they had experienced in the previous year and rated their importance on a 5-point scale. The draft MCSQ included, in general, items reported to occur most frequently and that had the highest importance scores (impact method). Patient feedback on the draft MCSQ led to elimination of redundant items and selection of a one-week recall period for each item. Phase 3 (cross-sectional testing): Another 100 …

Background Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most commonly prescribed drugs for preventing upper gastrointestinal bleeding in critically ill patients. However, concerns have arisen about the possible harms of using PPIs, including potentially increased risk of pneumonia, Clostridioides difficile infection, and more seriously, an increased risk of death in the most severely ill patients. Triggered by the REVISE trial, which is a forthcoming large randomized trial comparing pantoprazole to placebo in invasively mechanically ventilated patients, we will conduct this systematic review to evaluate the efficacy and safety of PPIs versus no prophylaxis for critically ill patients. Methods We will systematically search randomized trials that compared gastrointestinal bleeding prophylaxis with PPIs versus placebo or no prophylaxis in adults in the intensive care unit (ICU). Pairs of reviewers will independently screen the …

Health Promotion International

In 2023, we embarked on an exciting new era of Health Promotion International to which we were appointed as the new Editorial team. Our first editorial in February 2023 argued that we faced a critical time for both people and planet, with the need for bold and transformational thinking from the health promotion community that would challenge the status quo, while embracing core principles of human rights, social justice, health equity and collective responsibility (Thomas and Daube, 2023). We welcomed eight new Associate Editors from six countries to the team, as well as two new social media coordinators, and new Advisory and Editorial Board members from ten countries, joining our journal founders Professor Ilona Kickbusch and Emeritus Professor John Catford. In 2024, we look forward to further strengthening representation from lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs), practitioners and First Nations …

The Lancet

2 Emanuel EJ, Persad G. The shared ethical framework to allocate scarce medical resources: a lesson from COVID-19. Lancet 2023; 401: 1892–902. 3 Emanuel EJ, Persad G, Upshur R, et al. Fair allocation of scarce medical resources in the time of COVID-19. N Engl J Med 2020; 382: 2049–55. 4 Kinder M. Essential but undervalued: millions of health-care workers aren’t getting the pay or respect they deserve in the COVID-19 pandemic. May 28, 2020. https://www. brookings. edu/research/essential-but-undervalued-millionsof-health-care-workers-arent-getting-the-payor-respect-they-deserve-in-the-covid-19-pandemic (accessed June 2, 2023). 5 Clapp JT. Keeping bioethics concrete: how social scientific research generates values.

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundUnderweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.MethodsWe used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundUnderweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.MethodsWe used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …