Matt Dickson

This paper contributes to the literature on the earnings returns to university graduation. Recent evidence using administrative earnings data from England suggests a zero return to graduation for men and positive returns to graduation for women in annual earnings at age 26. We show that once hours worked are taken into account-typically not available in administrative tax data-returns to graduation are zero for women too. Graduate women work more hours than comparable non-graduate women, explaining their annual earnings return, but in terms of hourly wages, average returns to graduation at this early career stage are around zero for both sexes. This highlights the importance of using both survey and administrative data sources when estimating the returns to university graduation.

BackgroundParticipation in higher education has significant and long-lasting consequences for people's socioeconomic trajectories. Maternal depression is linked to poorer educational achievement for children in school, but its impact on university attendance is unclear.MethodsIn an English longitudinal cohort study (N = 8952), we explore whether young people whose mothers experienced elevated depressive symptoms are less likely to attend university, and the role of potential mediators in the young person: educational achievement in school, depressive symptoms, and locus of control. We also examine whether maternal depressive symptoms influence young people's choice of university, and non-attendees' reasons for not participating in higher education.ResultsYoung people whose mothers experienced more recurrent depressive symptoms were less likely to attend university (OR = 0.88, CI = 0.82,0.94, p < …

BackgroundPaediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS), also known as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) emerged in April, 2020. The paediatric comparisons within the RECOVERY trial aimed to assess the effect of intravenous immunoglobulin or corticosteroids compared with usual care on duration of hospital stay for children with PIMS-TS and to compare tocilizumab (anti-IL-6 receptor monoclonal antibody) or anakinra (anti-IL-1 receptor antagonist) with usual care for those with inflammation refractory to initial treatment.MethodsWe did this randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial in 51 hospitals in the UK. Eligible patients were younger than 18 years and had been admitted to hospital for PIMS-TS. In the first randomisation, patients were randomly assigned (1: 1: 1) to usual care (no additional treatments), usual care plus …

The negative relationship between education and crime is well documented for many countries. In England, continued participation in education beyond the compulsory minimum school leaving age of 16 is strongly associated with a lower probability of experiencing custody in later teenage years, however the non-random selection of young people into continued participation means cross-sectional estimates of the relationship are likely to contain considerable bias. This paper estimates the causal effect of continuing in education post-16 on the probability of experiencing youth custody at ages 17 and 18, addressing the endogeneity of continued participation by exploiting the natural experiment created by the ‘raising of the participation age’in England in 2012/13. Unlike previous cohorts who could leave education aged 16, young people starting the final year of compulsory schooling in September 2012 were required to remain in education or training until the end of the school year in which they turned 17, and those starting the final year in September 2013 were required to remain in education or training until age 18. Using this exogenous variation in participation between cohorts we estimate the causal effect of continued participation on custody outcomes at ages 17 and 18 using Two-Stage Least Squares and Regression Discontinuity methods. The effect of the law change was to increase the proportion of young people participating in education at age 17 by 1.7 pp (1.2 pp) for boys (girls), from a base of 82.1%(85.0%) immediately prior to the reform. Despite this increase in participation, there was no identified effect on the probability of …

BackgroundEmpagliflozin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its anti-inflammatory, metabolic, and haemodynamic effects. The RECOVERY trial aimed to assess its safety and efficacy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.MethodsIn the randomised, controlled, open-label RECOVERY trial, several possible treatments are compared with usual care in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. In this analysis, we assess eligible and consenting adults who were randomly allocated in a 1: 1 ratio to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus oral empagliflozin 10 mg once daily for 28 days or until discharge (whichever came first) using web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality; secondary outcomes were duration of hospitalisation and (among participants not on invasive mechanical …

Background On average, educated people are healthier, wealthier and have higher life expectancy than those with less education. Numerous studies have attempted to determine whether education causes differences in later health outcomes or whether another factor ultimately causes differences in education and subsequent outcomes. Previous studies have used a range of natural experiments to provide causal evidence. Here we compare two natural experiments: a policy reform, raising the school leaving age in the UK in 1972; and Mendelian randomization. Methods We used data from 334 974 participants of the UK Biobank, sampled between 2006 and 2010. We estimated the effect of an additional year of education on 25 outcomes, including mortality, measures of morbidity and health, ageing and income, using multivariable adjustment, the policy reform and …

Study of the ‘returns to education’has been one of the most productive areas of research in labour economics for the last seven decades and it is very likely that it will continue to be a major topic in the future. Understanding how and why investments in education impact upon later economic outcomes, and more precisely quantifying the ‘return’, is important for a range of questions relevant to both policymakers and individuals. Moreover, beyond the labour market, the ‘returns to education’literature has expanded to consider the impact of education on outcomes in a variety of additional domains. This chapter first reviews the theoretical foundations of the ‘returns to education’literature and key considerations for the implementation of the canonical model. It then surveys the empirical evidence on the private financial return to education and the impact of education on other life outcomes. The final part of the chapter considers the current research frontier in this literature and likely directions for future research. The primary pathway is expected to be the further development and estimation of models that are better able to characterise the education investment decision and relax the numerous strong assumptions embedded in the canonical model. An additional pathway is the continued development of research that addresses questions broadening the concept of the ‘returns to education’into areas that are yet to be fully explored in the existing literature.

We use a large and novel administrative dataset to investigate returns to different university ‘degrees’ (subject-institution combinations) in the United Kingdom. Conditioning on a rich set of background characteristics, we find substantial variation in returns across degrees with similar selectivity levels, suggesting students’ degree choices matter a lot for later-life earnings. Returns increase with university selectivity much more at the top of the selectivity distribution than further down, and much more for some subjects than others. Returns are poorly correlated with observable degree characteristics other than selectivity, which could have important implications for student choices and the incentives of universities.

Universities call for a tuition fee rise – here’s what that would mean for students and taxpayers — the University of Bath's research portal Skip to main navigation Skip to search Skip to main content the University of Bath's research portal Home the University of Bath's research portal Logo Help & FAQ Home Profiles Research output Projects Datasets Student theses Equipment Research units Search by expertise, name or affiliation Universities call for a tuition fee rise – here’s what that would mean for students and taxpayers Matt Dickson, Franz Buscha Institute for Policy Research (IPR) Centre for Analysis of Social Policy (CASP) Research output: Contribution to specialist publication › Article Overview Original language English Specialist publication The Conversation Publication status Published - 2 Sept 2022 Access to Document https://theconversation.com/universities-call-for-a-tuition-fee-rise-heres-what-that-would-…

• This report quantitatively evaluates the likely impacts on participation and attainment of raising the participation age (RPA) in education or training to 18 in Wales. It complements an accompanying report that reviews qualitative evidence on the value of introducing RPA in Wales (Maguire, 2021).

In England, the compulsory age of participation in education or training was raised to 17 in 2013 and then 18 in 2015. In Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, the school leaving age is 16. The idea of raising the age of participation in education or training is gaining traction in the Scottish context, as well as in Wales. The Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) conducted research for the Welsh Government to explore the implications of pursuing this policy in Wales. The research considered how RPA might interact with ongoing reforms to school age and post-16 provision in Wales, and explored alternative policies which concentrate on reducing early school leaving, as opposed to policies that legally require young people to remain in learning for longer periods of time.

The UK Government (2021a) recently calculated that 14 million people in the UK are disabled. That’s around 21% of the population, a figure that has steadily increased from 18% a decade ago. This matters because there are substantial differences in life outcomes for disabled people. There is a 50% difference in household income between disabled and non-disabled people, and the income gap is growing (Kim et al 2019). The employment rate for working age disabled people is just over 50%(Kim et al 2020), 28 percentage points below that for non-disabled people (ONS 2021). However, in attempting to tackle what the Prime Minister called a “gaping chasm” of employment, caution must be taken not to assume that a reduction in the ‘employment gap’(see UK Government 2021a) would mean a rise in economic well-being. Disabled women in particular are more likely to be in part-time, junior, insecure jobs than disabled men and non-disabled men and women (Kim et al 2020), so even if they have gained employment, they may continue to be marginalized by job insecurity and low income, especially in light of the economic consequences of the pandemic.

Good health is positively related to children’s educational outcomes, but relationships may not be causal. Demonstrating a causal influence would strongly support childhood and adolescent health as important for education policy. We applied genetic causal inference methods to assess the causal relationship of common health conditions at age 10 (primary/elementary school) and 13 (mid-secondary/mid-high school) with educational attainment at 16 and school absence at 14–16. Participants were 6113 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Exposures were symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), depression, asthma, migraines and BMI. Genetic liability for these conditions and BMI was indexed by polygenic scores. In non-genetic, multivariate-adjusted models, all health conditions except asthma and migraines were …

This report provides estimates of the earnings returns to completing postgraduate degrees, for British and Northern Irish students studying in Britain. We use the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) dataset to account for differences in individuals’ background and prior university attainment to estimate the impact of postgraduate qualifications on earnings at age 35, relative to having an undergraduate degree and not proceeding onto further study. We use age 35 for our headline estimates in order to allow people to gain sufficient labour market experience after completing their qualifications. We also show how these returns evolve throughout individuals’ thirties. We look separately at returns for masters, PhD and Postgraduate Certificates in Education (PGCE) degrees, and break these down by gender, prior undergraduate degree, postgraduate institution, and (where appropriate) postgraduate subject. Following our previous reports we estimate the earnings impact for individuals in sustained employment, though we additionally consider the effect on the probability of being in sustained employment and earning above certain thresholds. We focus on individuals who started their undergraduate degree by age 21 and define postgraduates as those who have completed a full-time postgraduate qualification by age 30.While this work dramatically improves on the existing evidence in this area, some caution needs to be exercised when interpreting these findings. First, this report focusses on the private earnings returns to postgraduate qualifications only. Second, while we have a very rich dataset that allows us to control for many of the differences …

Grammar schools are secondary schools that select pupils based on their performance on a test at age 11 - those pupils above a certain threshold attend state-funded grammar schools, while those below the threshold attend state-funded comprehensive or secondary modern schools depending on the area (with the other alternatives being religious or private schools). Inequalities exist in who attains places at grammar schools by socio-economic status, with more disadvantaged children far less likely to attend a grammar school that their more advantaged peers. This is true even when comparing those with similar levels of academic achievement. Numerous factors contribute to this inequality in access, many of which will be exacerbated during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This briefing note summarises the empirical evidence on socio-economic inequalities in who goes to grammar schools, the drivers behind these, and some implications, including the likely impact of the current school closures on inequality in access, if the usual selection procedure (the `11 plus' exam) continues to be used this year.

Despite the small number of pupils involved, the ‘grammar school question’is still fiercely debated among academics and politicians. Proponents of state-funded selective schooling invariably claim it enhances social mobility by providing the opportunity for bright children from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds to access a high-quality secondary education alongside other similarly high-ability children, with positive impacts on educational attainment and subsequent life trajectories. Arguments against the system include its apparently divisive nature, the unfairness of the 11+ examination and, above all, evidence that suggests the system depresses overall educational achievement within a general catchment area and has a particularly negative effect on the poorest children in that area.There are currently 163 grammar schools in England, left over from the general move to comprehensive schooling that took place in the 1960s and 1970s. They educate around 167,000 pupils–that is around 5 per cent of the total number of secondary pupils in the state-funded system of about 3,000 state secondary schools as a whole. Importantly, these grammar schools are not evenly distributed across the country. Some local authorities, such as Buckinghamshire, Kent and Lincolnshire, have maintained an overall commitment to a selective school system, with the majority of their young people being educated either in grammar schools or in secondary moderns. In other areas with grammar schools, there are comparatively small numbers of grammar schools with most young people going to their local comprehensive

Background We aimed to estimate the causal effect of health conditions and risk factors on social and socioeconomic outcomes in UK Biobank. Evidence on socioeconomic impacts is important to understand because it can help governments, policy makers and decision makers allocate resources efficiently and effectively. Methods We used Mendelian randomization to estimate the causal effects of eight health conditions (asthma, breast cancer, coronary heart disease, depression, eczema, migraine, osteoarthritis, type 2 diabetes) and five health risk factors [alcohol intake, body mass index (BMI), cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking] on 19 social and socioeconomic outcomes in 336 997 men and women of White British ancestry in UK Biobank, aged between 39 and 72 years. Outcomes included annual household income, employment, deprivation [measured by the …

We investigate the impact on earnings inequality of a selective education system in which school assignment is based on initial test scores. We use a large, representative household panel survey to compare adult earnings inequality of those growing up under a selective education system with those educated under a comprehensive system in England. Controlling for a range of background characteristics and the current location, the wage distribution for individuals who grew up in selective schooling areas is substantially and significantly more unequal. The total effect sizes are large: 24% of the raw 90–10 earnings gap and 19% of the conditional 90–10 earnings gap can be explained by differences across schooling systems.

This report provides estimates of the earnings returns to completing postgraduate degrees, for British and Northern Irish students studying in Britain. We use the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) dataset to account for differences in individuals’ background and prior university attainment to estimate the impact of postgraduate qualifications on earnings at age 35, relative to having an undergraduate degree and not proceeding onto further study. We use age 35 for our headline estimates in order to allow people to gain sufficient labour market experience after completing their qualifications. We also show how these returns evolve throughout individuals’ thirties. We look separately at returns for masters, PhD and Postgraduate Certificates in Education (PGCE) degrees, and break these down by gender, prior undergraduate degree, postgraduate institution, and (where appropriate) postgraduate subject. Following our previous reports we estimate the earnings impact for individuals in sustained employment, though we additionally consider the effect on the probability of being in sustained employment and earning above certain thresholds. We focus on individuals who started their undergraduate degree by age 21 and define postgraduates as those who have completed a full-time postgraduate qualification by age 30.While this work dramatically improves on the existing evidence in this area, some caution needs to be exercised when interpreting these findings. First, this report focusses on the private earnings returns to postgraduate qualifications only. Second, while we have a very rich dataset that allows us to control for many of the differences …

Background Obesity is a key public health issue worldwide. Accurate estimates of its full impacts on health, social, and economic outcomes are required, but are difficult to obtain due to bias from confounding and reverse causality (the impact of social and economic factors on obesity). Methods Using data from the UK Biobank and ALSPAC, we applied a genetic causal inference approach (Mendelian Randomization, MR) to estimate the impact of body mass index (BMI) on key social and economic outcomes. Because genetic variants are assigned before birth and cannot change, estimates from MR studies are less liable to confounding and reverse causation. Results Effects of higher BMI were often larger in MR than conventional (non-genetic) models, suggesting previous studies may have underestimated the impact of BMI. For example, in adolescents …